Climate change is a primary threat to sagebrush obligate wildlife, but predicting climate change impacts on sagebrush habitat remains a challenge. We rely on models, but every model suffers from problematic assumptions, undermining confidence in predictions. However, by comparing predictions from different modeling approaches, we may be able to increase our confidence in model projections. We compared models based on four very different kinds of information, from spatial and temporal correlations between climate and sagebrush cover to the dependence of sagebrush physiology on moisture and temperature. Despite considerable variation in the predictions of these four models, consistent trends emerged. Warming appears likely to have a positive effect on sagebrush performance in cold locations but a negative effect in warm locations. In addition, changes in temperature will have a greater impact on sagebrush than changes in precipitation. This information may help managers prioritize areas for conservation.